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Happy birthday

Happy birthday Lisa

I sent this to myself with the Note "Clearly the most important op ed of the 21st Century

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/18/opinion/health-reform-realities.html?r...

and the real reason i have to keep working because it is the do good Liberals who are hell bent on repealing the Affordable Health Care Act.

Near Lowell Schooll

http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2016/01/17/realestate/on-the-market-in-...

$1,349,000--- I don't know how anyone can afford to live here.

It is on the block just west of where the Mount's used to live.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/518+Northumberland+Rd,+Teaneck,+NJ+07666/@40.898888,-74.021437,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x89c2f0980e5b6c5f:0xc2ab79f77dd13f03

HAPPY BirthdaY

Hope you have a wonderful day

We all love you

House races

Wisconsin will have a 5-3 split in favor of the Republicans. District 3 will be the closest race with the Dems a huge favorite..

Colorado probably will be 4-3 for the Republicans. It depends on district 6 where they are favored.

Iowa has only 4 districts and they are not gerrymandered. One is a 50-50 coin toss. Two are split but competitive races and the 4th district is a lock for the Republicans.

At this point, the Democrats would need to win races where they are 9-1 underdogs to retake the house. There are only 60 seats where the underdog has a better than 1 in 10 chance.

It is still wrong to purchase a lottery ticket.

I think you could even argue that it is more wrong to purchase a ticket with a $1.3 billion prize than a $300 million prize.

I don’t know the reduction for taking the lump sum compared to the annuity. I think it is 30%. You would get $718.8 million is upfront cash for a $1 billion prize. I don’t know the top tax rate but I think it is 39.6% so let’s assume the net tax rate is 44% after state taxes. That means you get to keep about $403 million from a $1 billion prize.

So, to recap, you would get $523 million from a $1.3 billion prize and you would get only $121 million from a $300 million prize.

Now, I don’t have that good an imagination to understand the difference between my net worth going up by a factor of 523 versus by only a factor of 121. And I am pretty well off. If your net worth is ONLY $500,000 then the factors are 1,026 and 242. Can any of us understand what a massive increase would mean?

Buy Oil

The press is way too negative on oil right now.

$31.47 as I write this for CL1 on Bloomberg. I am not smart enough to know which oil that is. It is down 5.13% for the day. It was as low as $30.91 about an hour ago

GOP Nominee

Most likely

1) Ted Cruz
2) Paul Ryan
3) Marco Rubio
4) Chris Christie
5) Donald Trump
6) Mitt Romney
7) AM Hecht

PS I have real money on Cruz and Ryan and real money against Trump and Carson

Nate Silver is past his peak

Why 538 is past its prime

Nate Silver never really deserved all the praise that he received for being so right about the last two elections.

All he did was call every state correctly based on polls. Virtually any idiot could have done that. Yes, he did some analysis to figure out that certain polls tilt one way or the other and some polls are more trustworthy than others. Sam Wang did better than 538 and called most, if not all, of the Senate races correctly. Has anyone ever heard of Sam Wang?

One thing that virtually nobody is talking about is the odds of 538 getting every state correct. For example, if you have 8 states that are tossups. They range from 15% to 85% in 10% increments. You only have a 5.19% chance of calling all 8 states correctly. I don’t have the 538 data for the last two elections but there were a couple of states that were within a few points of a 50-50 split. Calling them correctly is basically dumb luck.

Bought some stock

I just bought some US stocks.

Actually, that is not true. I entered into a contract to buy stocks at today's closing price.

Don't know if it is the right move but the Dow is down 6% from the close of December 30.

AM's VP

I am not completely sure how to translate this into real odds but Carly is now bid 7 cents asked 10 cents. It basically means she has between a 7% and 10% chance of being the VP nominee.

The most likely choices are
Haley
Cruz
Kasich
Portman - my choice
Rubio
Ayotte
Fiorina
Walker
Martinez - no chance. She was drunk at a party and abused the police.
Christie
Trump - No chance
Ernst

And, amazingly, the Democrats are favored to take back the Senate. I assume with the vote of the VP.

Sometimes even Republicans can learn

http://www.buzzfeed.com/johnstanton/after-decades-congress-effectively-l...

Apparently alarmed by a rise of HIV/AIDS and heroin addiction in red states, congressional Republicans at the end of 2015 "agreed to essentially end their decades-long opposition to federally funding state and local needle exchange programs, slipping a repeal of the ban into the end of the year omnibus spending measure with virtually no fanfare," writes John Stanton of Buzzfeed.

It is nice to have my own private place to post things on the web.

Liberal Republicans don't make sense to me

San Diego mayor "Faulconer, a city councilman before becoming mayor, has followed a long line of socially liberal and fiscally conservative San Diego leaders. He is pro-choice, pro-marriage equality, pro-comprehensive immigration reform, and pro-gun control. But on the economic side, Faulconer is against tax and minimum-wage hikes and in favor of pension reform and bidding out city services."

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/kevin-faulconer-mayo...

That description basically defines me. I am not crazy about raising the minimum wage and would rather expand the EITF. I think we need pension reform and I think we should be more logical in paying for city services.

Of course, I am a Yellow Dog and this guy is a Republican.

A new Republican President will probably be able to make abortion illegal, kill immigration reform, destroy what is left of gun control. I don't even think that having nine Scalia's on the court can do much about marriage equality since that horse is so far out of the barn that the decision is final. A new Republican President won't be able to do much about social security but can really screw up medicare and health reform.

This might help AM understand the logic of ....

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/11/why-we-fightand-can-...

It is from 2013 but I think it is a wonderful article.

Of course, I love Robert Wright so my logic is biased.

a GOOD website

I think a lot of the posts here are good but this picture is really cute

http://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/feature-or-bug/

Denver Post mentions the family

Wayne Brady - Kinky Boots

I didn't know this until today but Wayne Brady is starring on Broadway in Kinky Boots.

He wasn't in the show last night but he is the regular star of the show.

I saw the show a few months ago with the Tony Award winning actor who did a great job.

It might be worth getting tickets but I would be really disappointed to see the understudy - no matter how good the understudy is.

Live Long and Prosper

http://about.usps.com/news/national-releases/2015/pr15_069.htm

Star Trek
Celebrating the 50th anniversary of the television premiere, the new Star Trek Forever stamps showcase four digital illustrations inspired by classic elements of the television program:
•the Starship Enterprise inside the outline of a Starfleet insignia against a gold background;
•the silhouette of a crewman in a transporter against a red background;
•the silhouette of the Enterprise from above against a green background; and,
•the Enterprise inside the outline of the Vulcan statue (Spock’s iconic hand gesture) against a blue background

The words “SPACE… THE FINAL FRONTIER,” from Captain Kirk’s famous voice-over appear beneath the stamps against a background of stars. The stamps were designed by Heads of State under the art direction of Antonio Alcalá.

How can you get first day of issue stamps

2016 Predictions

Russia: Putin will not survive 2016

Republicans: Cruz will win easily
If there is a brokered convention then Paul Ryan will be the nominee
Trump CANNOT run as a third party candidate because he doesn't have enough money

Interest Rates: There will be very few interest rate hikes in 2016, at most two and probably only one rate hike

If Trump runs as a third party, which I doubt, then it will be great for the Congressional Republicans and they will make big gains. If Trump is the nominee then the Democrats will control both the House and the Senate

Golden State will have the best season in NBA history

Alaska will be in huge trouble because of oil prices

Anti-GMO forces will weaken and it won't be as big an issue in the future

Hydrogen Cars and Electric cars will not make any significant advances. Internal combustion is the wave of the future

Football is in decline because of health issues and 2016 will be the first year where high schools start cutting back because insurance will become too expensive

Star Wars Spoilers

This blog post talks about 1955, 1985, and 2015 concerning Back to the Future and talks about 1977 and 2015 concerning Star Wars.

I haven't seen the movie so I can't comment about how accurate Douthat is about Star Wars

The spoilers start fairly far down the link so you can read about Back to the Future and then stop when he mentions spoilers.

For the people who have seen the movie, how accurate is his criticism?

http://douthat.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/12/21/star-wars-and-decadence/

More weather trivia

Independent Events

NY is scheduled to have at least 42 days in a row of above average temperatures. Theoretically, each day is a coin flip. But yesterday’s coin flip plays a factor in today’s coin flip.

42 heads in a row, IN A FAIR COIN, happen once in 12 billion years.

How often do you get 42 days in a row of above average temperature?

I have 1121 days of Brooklyn temperatures and we had 27 days in a row below average last February and we had 19 days in a row of above average temperatures last August. I guess that means that first 11 months of 2015 were bad because we were cold in February and hot in August. Now we are hot in December to make up for it.

The smartest people I knew were in high school

http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-george-hotz-self-driving-car/

The article ends with the following:
Musk wrote to Hotz in an e-mail. “I’m happy to work out a multimillion-dollar bonus with a longer time horizon that pays out as soon as we discontinue Mobileye.”

“I appreciate the offer,” Hotz replied, “but like I’ve said, I’m not looking for a job. I’ll ping you when I crush Mobileye.”

Musk simply answered, “OK.”

This is from earlier in the story :
Hotz said "...I was shocked at what I saw and what colleges have become. The smartest people I knew were in high school, and I was so let down by the people in college.”

Lisa was in the same class at Bergen Academies.

Happy Birthday Rob G!

Happy birthday!

Mery Christmas

I love you all

Paul Ryan for President

I was wrong about Jindal at 200-1 but I am willing to take Paul Ryan at 200-1.

I think he is #6 or #7 along with Kasich.

However, I think the winner is going to be Ted Cruz. I actually can see Cruz running the table. If he wins in NH then I think he wins everywhere.

I don't have much money in my predictit account but Cruz is at 15% in NH. Seems like a good bet.

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