whecht's blog

Trump and winning

I have been arguing that it doesn’t matter who gets the most popular votes just as it doesn’t matter which team scores the most runs. What counts is who got the most electoral votes and which team won the most games.

Now, it appears that a number of Republicans seem to disagree with me. Trump and others appear to be coming to the conclusion that whoever gets the most votes should win. Hillary would love that standard because Sanders can’t gain the lead in popular votes but will be far closer in delegates.

The key factor here, just as it was in 2000, is that playing by the rules isn’t what is important. Winning is what’s important. Trump wants to win so he wants the rules to be changed to make it easier for him to win. Cruz wants to win so he wants the rules to just be changed a little so that nobody but the top two contenders are allowed to win. Kasich is doing his thing too.

Ted Cruz will be the 46th President of the United States

Unless President Clinton dies in office.

Why Ted Cruz needs to lose the nomination
I submit that if Cruz wins the nomination then he will NEVER become president. If Cruz loses the nomination then Cruz will be the odds on favorite to win the 2020 election.

If Cruz loses the nomination then it will either be to Trump or to a white knight. If Trump wins then the odds are great that Clinton wins an election and the Democrats get control of the Senate and might even get the House. If a white knight wins then Trump supporters will be ticked and the white knight will probably lose the White House and the Senate.

If Cruz wins then the Trump people are just as ticked and Clinton wins pretty easily. Interestingly, if Trump runs as a third party then the Republicans might do well in the Senate because when Trump gets 10% of the people to vote for him who wouldn’t vote otherwise then the Senate might actually stay Republican. But, you need to remember that Trump isn’t rich enough to fund his own campaign. Can Trump run by spending $50 million while Cruz and Clinton each spend 20 times as much or $1 billion each?

I doubt I will ever vote again.

I suppose I will try to vote again if I move. This place was very inconvenient for transit and took almost 20 minutes of walking, most of which was under a major highway next to a major road with a ton of noise and trucks.

It wasn't in a very safe section of town.

In any event, Clinton has a very slight chance of getting an extra delegate because of me.

I hope you are all happy that I wasted my time.

The reason I voted is that I really do feel the Bern. I could never support Bernie for anything anymore. He is too ignorant. He is too far left. He hasn't accomplished much in his long career.

729 votes to elect a single delegate

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/04/15/upshot/republican-voting-p...

According to the rules of delegate selection, there is a congressional district where 729 votes would elect a single delegate to the RNC.

So, what are the odds that the delegate vote in that district will be that close? If I am a Trump supporter then what are the odds that Trump will get an extra delegate because I voted? He would have to be one vote short of getting either 1 or 2 or 3 delegates in that district. Of course, if I were a Cruz supporter then the math would be slightly different.

Of course, you then have to decide whether or not the change in a single delegate makes any difference in Cleveland.

My vote tomorrow will be almost surely a waste of time. The delegate math doesn't matter. If Sanders wins by a single vote then Hillary is dead. I wonder how close Sanders needs to be to kill Hillary. I wonder how you could get a white night like Biden or Kerry to defeat Sanders. I don't see it happening.

HAPPY BirthdaY

Without your help we wouldn't have this website.
Thanks for everything.

Happy Birthday

My former home is #4

I never would have guessed that New Mexico could rank so high.

I read it at 538 and it still is hard to believe.

I can't imagine that New Mexico would beat New York but then I never would have guessed Idaho would beat New York either.

Everyone knows Wisconsin is #1 and California is #2 but who would have guessed that Idaho, New Mexico and New York would be 3, 4 and 5.

In any event, I miss my green chile cheeseburgers.

Does Microsoft make a New Mexico specific spell checker that doesn't require Chile to be capitalized?

Anyway, go to 538 and read all about it.

Frank from Andrew Tobias

A man walks out to the street and catches a taxi just going by.

He gets into the taxi, and the cabbie says, “Perfect timing. You’re just like Frank.”

Passenger: “Who?”

Cabbie: “Frank… he’s a guy who did everything right all the time. Like my coming along when you needed a cab, things happened like that to Frank Feldman every single time.”

Passenger: “There are always a few clouds over everybody.”

Cabbie: “Not Frank. He was a terrific athlete. He could have won the Grand Slam at tennis. He could golf with the pros. He sang like an opera baritone, and danced like a Broadway star. And you should have heard him play the piano ! He was an amazing guy.”

Passenger: “Sounds like he was somebody really special.”

Cabbie: “Oh well there’s more. He had a memory like a computer. He remembered everybody’s birthday. He knew all about wine, which foods to order, and which fork to eat it with, and he could fix anything. Not like me – I change a fuse, and the whole street blacks out. But Frank, he could do everything right.”

Passenger: “Wow, some guy then.”

Amazing

Sometimes little things set in motion things that radically change your world.

Sometimes the obvious answer is wrong.

I guess the lesson is that we need to be careful not to jump to conclusions even though those conclusions seem like the only possibility.

I never would have guessed that the final score would be 4-0-0

I’m a PhD student, and I can’t wait to vote for Donald Trump

http://www.vox.com/2016/4/4/11346078/donald-trump-support

The title gives you the impression that a smart, reasonable person supports Trump.

But the third paragraph says this
"If Trump were not running for president, I would not be voting. I will not vote for any other office in either the Indiana primary on May 3 or in the general election. I consider voting to be an inherently violent and immoral act."

I guess I don't understand the logic of some people. How can somebody think that voting is an inherently violent and immoral act and expect people to think his logic about voting is persuasive?

Apple Income Taxes

Apple is headquartered in one of the highest tax states in the country.

Using a 10% state tax rate and a 35% federal rate then you get a blended rate of 41.5%.

How come Apple expenses only 26.4% of its income in taxes for its latest fiscal year? It appears to only pay at a rate of 24.5%. Both of my numbers are probably too high but I don’t have the time to dig further and I doubt I would be able to confidently come up with more accurate numbers.

So between 15% and 17% of their income is not paid in taxes.

The answer is that Apple earns some of its money in lower tax countries but we all know that Apple gets almost all of its revenue in the EU, North America and Japan. It should be paying somewhat similar taxes in those areas.

The real answer is that Apple basically lies about where the money is earned and transfers the “income” around the world by pretending work is done in certain places and selling patents to subsidiaries in certain countries to evade taxes. What Apple does isn’t legal but it is close enough to legal that they get away with most of it.

My VP Prediction

If Trump wins the nomination then Hillary Clinton will pick as her VP

LIVE FROM NEW YORK

Senator Al Franken

Come back and read this in 2020 or 2024

I haven't seen anyone else talking about this but maybe I missed it.

The rules for the Democratic Party nomination are insane. The delegates are picked on a proportional basis which makes it very hard to settle on a nominee of the party.

They were lucky in 2008 that it quickly became a two man race. They were lucky in 2016 that it basically was a two man race from the start.

What is going to happen in the next contested nomination where you actually have more than two main candidates?

If you had someone like a Kasich in the race this year and you had the split in the vote something like Clinton 40, Sanders 30, Kasich 20, and others 10 then the no candidate would come close to getting 50% of the delegates.

We can watch the Republicans where you will have hurt feelings if Trump wins or if he doesn't. Imagine the Democrats where they have less party unity having a contested convention.

It will be a disaster and split the Democrats and give the election to the Republicans.

Iceland and Guam

The difference would be even bigger on the first day of spring but

Tomorrow will have 45 seconds more of sunlight in Guam and 6 minutes and 31 seconds in Iceland.

It is about the biggest difference you get between the two places. It was bigger a couple of days ago but I don't have that data available.

Estate taxes

If I kill myself right now, the IRS would be very happy. I would pay a huge estate tax bill because resident aliens have no exemption and anything over $145,000 would be subject to estate tax.

Or maybe I should change my will.

How is that for being cryptic?

Does anyone get notice when I change my posts?

71% right now

Predictwise says that 40 of the 51 states are at least 9-1 in favor of one party or the other.

There are 11 tossup states meaning the odds are less than 9-1
Democrats get 207 votes
Republicans get 181
140 are toss up
Minnesota 88%
New Hampshire 85%
Colorado 83%
Wisconsin 78%
Iowa 74%
Pennsylvania 67%
Virginia 67%
Nevada 59%
Ohio 51%
Florida 41%
North Carolina 21%

This makes Virginia and Pennsylvania the toss up states. The Democrats need both of them to win the election.

If the democrats get all the states where they have a 67% or better chance of winning then they win. If the Republicans get all of the states where they have at least a 34% chance of winning and either VA or PA then the republicans win.

Overall, as of yesterday, the democrats were a 71% favorite.

Sorry I am so darn cryptic

The space between Clinton and Kasich

If everyone who isn't a Democrat thinks that Clinton is pretty far on the left and everyone who isn't a Republican thinks that Kasich is far to the right then why isn't there a huge group in between?

I don't see anyone in the Republican Party who thinks that Kasich would have to, or should, pivot toward the center. I think most everyone reading this thinks that Clinton is already too far to the right.

So you have about 40% of the people to the right of Kasich and 40% of the people to the left of Clinton meaning the middle 20% is pretty small. If you had a bell curve then you would have relatively few people on the extremes and most of the people in the center.

I talk with a bunch of people who hate Clinton and I defend my position as having to choose between the two "moderates". Since Kasich is so far to the right then I think Clinton is closer to the middle.

Anyway, I find it amazing that the two parties just force each of their candidates to move farther from the middle.

Illogical, aint it?

Amazing

The reason that Deep Mind winning is so impressive is that Google managed to accomplish this with virtually no warning. It was less than a decade ago where I could beat the best computer in the world in go. It was less than a year ago where a computer program was not in the top 20,000 in the world. It was less than 6 months ago when the program beat a player in the top 1,000. Yesterday the program beat the best player in the world.

Am I wrong to be shocked at how fast complicate AI has advanced?

The best way to attack Donald Trump

If I were Cruz or Rubio, I would attack Trump this way.

Donald Trump will never release his tax returns because they show he has been lying about how successful he has been. His tax returns probably show that he has very little taxable income. The returns will show that he aggressively wrote off all of his failed business ventures and might even show a number of years where Trump lost money.

Trump lies to people about everything. Many people give him credit for being a successful businessman and being worth billions. I have to give Trump credit. He is a master showman and has years of practice in reality TV but in the real world, Donald Trump is a mediocre businessman and lies about how rich and successful he is.

Mike Bloomberg is rich enough to run as a third party candidate. Donald Trump is not rich enough to run for President without raising funds like the rest of us. This is just another lie Trump is pedaling.

Income distribution

Person #1 is in the 7th percentile for people of that sex, age group, race and education.
Person # 2 is in the 24th percentile for people of that sex, age group, race and education.

The funny thing is that some people are not happy with the way income is divided in this country.

Guns

I talked to a reasonable conservative whose biggest fear of a Democrat wining is that we are just one vote away on the Court from losing the 2nd amendment. Cities with crazy liberal government will be able to take away the right to own a gun. After a couple of minutes, it became clear that there was no point in talking about common sense.

It was sort of like talking to a Sanders supporter who blames Clinton for the repeal of Glass Steagall and that repeal being the cause of the 2008 financial crisis. If you want to blame Clinton for anything then it was allowing hedging and futures to have lax regulation, but I digress.

Reality has a liberal bias

One reason this is true is that the Democrats actually try to stay close the ball park of reality.

It is absurd that the Republicans all claim they can get the economy growing faster than it has since the depression. It is absurd to think that the tax cuts will all pay for themselves.

It is absurd that Bernie can think that a little tax on the rich and fixing healthcare gets everyone gets government services without paying for them.

So, can you please find me an article written by someone who supports the Republican side that shows that the tax proposals are absurd?

Here is one showing that Bernie's plan is absurd.

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/02/gerald-friedmans-analysis-...

I can show you a bunch of others too.

As you know, I want single payer health insurance. Because if I need to get medical care on my own I can game the system.

Good Quote

http://cafehayek.com/2016/02/bonus-quotation-of-the-day-67.html

Café Hayek is just what it sounds like, a far right economic site. However, it sometimes helps to read what people who disagree with you are saying

"For reasons I don’t understand, people simply love to be told that the sky is falling. Yet it seldom does."

Scalia

I read someplace that Scalia liked to push the envelope. If the vote was 6-3 then he hadn’t pushed hard enough. If this is true then I think it is sufficient evidence to PROVE that Scalia politicized the Court.

“Comments like that lessened his influence. But Scalia happily observed that he looked to push the envelope, that if he had a 6-to-3 majority, he hadn’t pushed it hard enough.” http://www.ktoo.org/2016/02/13/justice-antonin-scalia-known-biting-disse...

This isn’t where I first read it but it was the first place I found when I searched for it.

If the law says that one side in the Court case is correct then shouldn’t the vote be 9-0? It is the complicated cased that make it to the Supreme Court to begin with and it is the extra complicated cases that are decided by a 5-4 decision. It would be really easy to imagine a slightly different set of Justices or a slightly different set of facts that would result in a 5-4 decision going the other way.

Hillary

I don't know much at all about the email mess. It might kill her or it might not.

She is about a 2-1 favorite in Iowa. It seems to me that she might be in big trouble if she doesn't win there.

I think Iowa will be a big win for Hillary and Cruz. I am basing this on the fact that voter registration has not gone up significantly in those states. Yes, you can register the night of the caucus but it seems that they candidates should try and get their voters registered before then.

I still wouldn't be surprised if Hillary and Cruz sweep every state.

Google IS AMAZING. (THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT)

Google has created the strongest go program ever.

It beat a professional 5-0. Never has a program come close to beating a professional.

The program is now scheduled to play the best player in the world this March with the winner getting $1 million.

Just last year, it appeared that that best programs in the world were ranked about 15 stones higher than me. I know a couple of people who are 15 stones better me. Professionals are easily 5 stones better that last year's computer programs. Generally, programs get better by about a stone a year and have been slowing down recently.

For a program to make a leap like this is amazing. They have figured out a new way to think.

If I read the paper correctly then the best program in the world last year had an ELO rating of 1919 and the new program has a rating of 2890 using the same hardware. Basically 400 points means you should win 95% of the time. With different hardware and a different way of using the hardware the program has a rating of 3140. My rating on this scale is about 500.

The singularity is nearer than we thought.

Syndicate content