whecht's blog

Income by census tract

99.999% prediction

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-to-unveil-plans-for-2016-presid...

As you know, Trump entered the race today.

" His campaign has 120 days to release the personal financial disclosure reports required of federal candidates."

"The NBC official said Mr. Trump couldn’t participate in the production of “Celebrity Apprentice” as long as he was an active political candidate. With filming expected to begin this fall, Mr. Trump would have a number of months to mount his candidacy before having to choose whether to continue.

Should he drop out of the race, he could then be involved in production of the program, the NBC official said."

Obviously, he will drop out of the race in either within 120 days or when NBC needs him for the show.

Current odds are 10,000 to 1. Any takers?

Abortion Middle Ground

Middle ground concerning abortion

I really wonder if we can ever have a middle ground on abortion.

Right now, it appears obvious, to me at least, that you have four members of the Supreme Court who would vote to overturn Roe and four who would vote against it.

So if you are in pro-choice then you think there should be reasonable restrictions on abortion but that most everyone should be able to get an abortion most of the time. I think this means that you would be against restrictions that have been passed recently.

If you are pro-life then I think you are very happy with the restrictions passed in Texas but you think they don’t go far enough. I know that for legal reasons, the pro-life people often can’t say they want laws to further restrict abortion or to outlaw it totally. But I am not talking about people whose statements might influence Court rulings, I am talking about normal pro-life people. I assume that many of the pro-life people think abortion is murder and that you shouldn’t have laws allowing for the murder of innocent unborn children.

quotes

Walter Matthau (I didn't know he was Jewish) said:

I never mind my wife having the last word. In fact, I'm delighted when she gets to it.

http://www.jspacenews.com/jspace-quotables-10-quotes-legendary-jewish-co...

I have enough money to last the rest of my life;
unless I buy something. (Jackie Mason but not as good a quote)

Outside of a dog, a book is a man’s best friend. Inside of a dog it’s too dark to read. (Groucho Marx)

Logic and logical

"Surprisingly, Planck never requested or expected flexibility from his peers. He famously stated what’s become known as “Planck’s principle”: “A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” In other words, new ideas do not advance by evidence, argument, and persuasion, but rather by older thinkers with older ideas passing away. One wonders if he was being darkly humorous, but in keeping with Prussian stereotypes, he was not a very funny man in general."

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/06/max_pla...

Reality exists. Just because our small brains can't understand reality it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

Republicans learn from personal experience

Democrats want everyone to pay for everything because the rich have so much money. They ain't perfect either.

This link is based on the title, not the first sentence of this post

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2015/05/note-politicians-stop-bein...

Cheese

http://cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/678194/Screen_Shot_201...

Wisconsin is number 1 in cheese production.

How the hell is New Mexico Number 5?

Bush and the war

Was George E. Bush right give the information he had at the time?

This is the question that Rubio wanted to answer.

It is completely fair to answer this question that Bush was correct given the information he had at the time.

BUT

Bush was WRONG to invade Iraq.

The reason these contradictory statements are both true is that Bush had the wrong information and a reasonable man would have had better information and would have made a better decision.

I believe that Bush wanted to invade Iraq and was looking for information to defend the decision he had already made.

It seems obvious to me, and everyone reading this blog, that Bush didn’t really understand the situation. I remember reading an op-ed from a conservative (don’t remember his name) that said everyone believed the same thing in 2003 but that only the Bush Administration still believed it in 2006.

snafu

It seems like the story of my life.

Whatever I do it always seems to go south.

OK

I seem to be in good shape
Of course it really doesn't matter if the biopsy is bad

THE, I repeat, THE northern most residents of Manhattan ISLAND

Henry, Julius and May were the ORIGINAL occupants of 4G. That is the apartment on the corner of Indian Road and 218th Street.

The one problem is that it is virtually impossible to know if there were residential units on either side of Broadway north of the intersection with 9th Ave.

Anyway, it was nice to get Dad to talk about something.

Teaneck loses another famous resident

recessions and depressions / minor procedures and major procedures

As you know, a recession is when you lose your job and a depression is when I lose my job.

A biopsy is a minor procedure when it happens to you and a major procedure when it happens to me.

I have an appointment next Monday to do a biopsy on my prostate.

I should be able to go to work Monday morning but....

let he who is without sinr refuse to bake cakes

I just saw the headline and thought it was great

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-02/let-he-who-is-without-s...

william.r.hecht@drexel.edu

I have now received two spam emails with that title.

I have confirmed with WRH that it is some kind of spam and you should delete it.

It goes directly to my Junk folder in Hotmail so I don't think it is a big deal. My spell checker automatically capitalizes 'hotmail' unless I put it in quotes. Then it redlines it as a spelling misteak. I love steak.

495 Beatrice and 988 Allen Ct

Originally, 495 and 487 were identical houses.

http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Teaneck-NJ-07666/house,condo,apartm...

The living room fireplace looks exactly the same.

They are asking $385k which isn't too different than the $225 that Dad got 14 years ago. There was serious appreciation for a couple of years and then the crash and then it came back.

I am sure 495 was in better shape than 487 but who knows.

998 Allen Court seems like it might have been an identical house to 991 Richard Ct.

They are only asking $359k. I think I would rather have that house for the same price. I guess it depends on the condition.

http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Teaneck-NJ-07666/house,condo,apartm...

For Andrew

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/24/business/deep-freeze-on-great-lakes-ha...

I don't think Peter remembers the ice on Lake Erie and I don't remember it too well.

Of course, I am living in a Great Lake state for the first time in 30 years so ice on the lakes is more important to me now.

For Lisa

http://www.vox.com/2015/3/23/8275573/ted-cruz-canada

I think this settles the question

Worth Reading updated 3/23 7AM

taxes

We need to try and find out HRH's medical expenses in 2014 and his charitable contributions in 2014.

It would also be very helpful to find out if he sent any estimated tax payments to New Jersey.

scan them and email them to bill ATT katchencpa delete this dot so it becomes an email com.

Happy Anniversary

If my math is correct, Henry and Alice got married 60 years ago.

Iran's response

http://www.vox.com/2015/3/9/8180933/zarif-cotton-letter

The Iranian response to the 47 Republican Senators.

It is pretty funny

Better than an index fund

http://www.wsj.com/articles/individual-stocks-vs-index-funds-the-next-fr...

I was trying to create something like this 15 years ago. I thought I could do better than an index fund in a taxable account with as little as $250,000.

Mario's sister works selling index funds to people and companies. She said there was no way I could create an index fund as cheaply as she could do it for me. I think she had drunk her company's Kool-Aid but I didn't talk to her enough to be sure.

In any event, I think that people who have a lot of money to invest over a long period of time could benefit from something like this. Of course, there aren't too many people who are going to be investing $30k+ a year for the next 15 years.

Mr. Spock - A conservate hates him

http://freebeacon.com/columns/i-dont-love-spock/

You need to read it to believe it.

Why the Dow did worse than the other indicies today

I don't know how things will close but it was easy to predict today.

AT&T is down a little because it is being kicked off the Dow.
Apple is up a little today because it is being added to the Dow.

You can't make money predicting stocks added to the Dow but you can make money predicting which stocks will be added and dropped from the S&P 500.

ETF and index funds that track the S&P are far bigger than those that track the Dow. The stocks that get added to the S&P are usually fairly small so it means that a lot of funds need to buy the stock to match the S&P. That means they jump significantly, many percent, when added to the S&P 500.

So if you are deciding whether to buy "Small" or "Little" and you see that Small is in the S&P and Little isn't then you probably should buy Little because there is a reasonable chance that Little will be the next company added when S&P needs a new company in that industry.

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