To have a place on the web for the family.

Election odds

Based on current data from Electionbettingodds

Clinton has a 77% chance of winning if she is the nominee and Sanders has a 61.9% chance.

Trump has a 22.4% chance and Cruz has a 19.5% chance and Kasich has a 26.7% chance.

So, I am still waiting for AM to post what bets he would make so we can trace how well he would really do.

I think that Clinton will win. At these odds, I would put a little money on Clinton but I think the odds are close to accurate. Of course, the reason the market is close to accurate is that people will put money on a bet that is too good to be true and bring it back in line.

Trump and winning

I have been arguing that it doesn’t matter who gets the most popular votes just as it doesn’t matter which team scores the most runs. What counts is who got the most electoral votes and which team won the most games.

Now, it appears that a number of Republicans seem to disagree with me. Trump and others appear to be coming to the conclusion that whoever gets the most votes should win. Hillary would love that standard because Sanders can’t gain the lead in popular votes but will be far closer in delegates.

The key factor here, just as it was in 2000, is that playing by the rules isn’t what is important. Winning is what’s important. Trump wants to win so he wants the rules to be changed to make it easier for him to win. Cruz wants to win so he wants the rules to just be changed a little so that nobody but the top two contenders are allowed to win. Kasich is doing his thing too.

Ted Cruz will be the 46th President of the United States

Unless President Clinton dies in office.

Why Ted Cruz needs to lose the nomination
I submit that if Cruz wins the nomination then he will NEVER become president. If Cruz loses the nomination then Cruz will be the odds on favorite to win the 2020 election.

If Cruz loses the nomination then it will either be to Trump or to a white knight. If Trump wins then the odds are great that Clinton wins an election and the Democrats get control of the Senate and might even get the House. If a white knight wins then Trump supporters will be ticked and the white knight will probably lose the White House and the Senate.

If Cruz wins then the Trump people are just as ticked and Clinton wins pretty easily. Interestingly, if Trump runs as a third party then the Republicans might do well in the Senate because when Trump gets 10% of the people to vote for him who wouldn’t vote otherwise then the Senate might actually stay Republican. But, you need to remember that Trump isn’t rich enough to fund his own campaign. Can Trump run by spending $50 million while Cruz and Clinton each spend 20 times as much or $1 billion each?

Election Odds for Hill to be POTUS @71.9%


I think that is high
I am scared out of my mind that we will have some Right Wing Nut at POTUS


And this will make sense later.

That is all.

I doubt I will ever vote again.

I suppose I will try to vote again if I move. This place was very inconvenient for transit and took almost 20 minutes of walking, most of which was under a major highway next to a major road with a ton of noise and trucks.

It wasn't in a very safe section of town.

In any event, Clinton has a very slight chance of getting an extra delegate because of me.

I hope you are all happy that I wasted my time.

The reason I voted is that I really do feel the Bern. I could never support Bernie for anything anymore. He is too ignorant. He is too far left. He hasn't accomplished much in his long career.

729 votes to elect a single delegate

According to the rules of delegate selection, there is a congressional district where 729 votes would elect a single delegate to the RNC.

So, what are the odds that the delegate vote in that district will be that close? If I am a Trump supporter then what are the odds that Trump will get an extra delegate because I voted? He would have to be one vote short of getting either 1 or 2 or 3 delegates in that district. Of course, if I were a Cruz supporter then the math would be slightly different.

Of course, you then have to decide whether or not the change in a single delegate makes any difference in Cleveland.

My vote tomorrow will be almost surely a waste of time. The delegate math doesn't matter. If Sanders wins by a single vote then Hillary is dead. I wonder how close Sanders needs to be to kill Hillary. I wonder how you could get a white night like Biden or Kerry to defeat Sanders. I don't see it happening.

HAPPY BirthdaY

Without your help we wouldn't have this website.
Thanks for everything.

Happy Birthday

A bad day indeed

My former home is #4

I never would have guessed that New Mexico could rank so high.

I read it at 538 and it still is hard to believe.

I can't imagine that New Mexico would beat New York but then I never would have guessed Idaho would beat New York either.

Everyone knows Wisconsin is #1 and California is #2 but who would have guessed that Idaho, New Mexico and New York would be 3, 4 and 5.

In any event, I miss my green chile cheeseburgers.

Does Microsoft make a New Mexico specific spell checker that doesn't require Chile to be capitalized?

Anyway, go to 538 and read all about it.

Frank from Andrew Tobias

A man walks out to the street and catches a taxi just going by.

He gets into the taxi, and the cabbie says, “Perfect timing. You’re just like Frank.”

Passenger: “Who?”

Cabbie: “Frank… he’s a guy who did everything right all the time. Like my coming along when you needed a cab, things happened like that to Frank Feldman every single time.”

Passenger: “There are always a few clouds over everybody.”

Cabbie: “Not Frank. He was a terrific athlete. He could have won the Grand Slam at tennis. He could golf with the pros. He sang like an opera baritone, and danced like a Broadway star. And you should have heard him play the piano ! He was an amazing guy.”

Passenger: “Sounds like he was somebody really special.”

Cabbie: “Oh well there’s more. He had a memory like a computer. He remembered everybody’s birthday. He knew all about wine, which foods to order, and which fork to eat it with, and he could fix anything. Not like me – I change a fuse, and the whole street blacks out. But Frank, he could do everything right.”

Passenger: “Wow, some guy then.”


Sometimes little things set in motion things that radically change your world.

Sometimes the obvious answer is wrong.

I guess the lesson is that we need to be careful not to jump to conclusions even though those conclusions seem like the only possibility.

I never would have guessed that the final score would be 4-0-0

What Clinton should say

"Senator Sanders says we need a revolution, he is working on getting President Cruz. That certainly will be a revolution. Not the one he intended."

I’m a PhD student, and I can’t wait to vote for Donald Trump

The title gives you the impression that a smart, reasonable person supports Trump.

But the third paragraph says this
"If Trump were not running for president, I would not be voting. I will not vote for any other office in either the Indiana primary on May 3 or in the general election. I consider voting to be an inherently violent and immoral act."

I guess I don't understand the logic of some people. How can somebody think that voting is an inherently violent and immoral act and expect people to think his logic about voting is persuasive?

Apple Income Taxes

Apple is headquartered in one of the highest tax states in the country.

Using a 10% state tax rate and a 35% federal rate then you get a blended rate of 41.5%.

How come Apple expenses only 26.4% of its income in taxes for its latest fiscal year? It appears to only pay at a rate of 24.5%. Both of my numbers are probably too high but I don’t have the time to dig further and I doubt I would be able to confidently come up with more accurate numbers.

So between 15% and 17% of their income is not paid in taxes.

The answer is that Apple earns some of its money in lower tax countries but we all know that Apple gets almost all of its revenue in the EU, North America and Japan. It should be paying somewhat similar taxes in those areas.

The real answer is that Apple basically lies about where the money is earned and transfers the “income” around the world by pretending work is done in certain places and selling patents to subsidiaries in certain countries to evade taxes. What Apple does isn’t legal but it is close enough to legal that they get away with most of it.

First attempt

Tribute to MC Escher by Peter Hecht

My VP Prediction

If Trump wins the nomination then Hillary Clinton will pick as her VP


Senator Al Franken

Come back and read this in 2020 or 2024

I haven't seen anyone else talking about this but maybe I missed it.

The rules for the Democratic Party nomination are insane. The delegates are picked on a proportional basis which makes it very hard to settle on a nominee of the party.

They were lucky in 2008 that it quickly became a two man race. They were lucky in 2016 that it basically was a two man race from the start.

What is going to happen in the next contested nomination where you actually have more than two main candidates?

If you had someone like a Kasich in the race this year and you had the split in the vote something like Clinton 40, Sanders 30, Kasich 20, and others 10 then the no candidate would come close to getting 50% of the delegates.

We can watch the Republicans where you will have hurt feelings if Trump wins or if he doesn't. Imagine the Democrats where they have less party unity having a contested convention.

It will be a disaster and split the Democrats and give the election to the Republicans.

it is illogical to think that we will function rationally

Nick Kristof said it in the NYT so it must be true


Granddad is doing better

For the first time in years I saw a sign that Granddad is actually improving. He read through the front section of the New York Times and was most of the way through the front section of the Record.

For a long while he would only read the front section of the Times. I was very happy to see the difference. No idea what caused it or if this is just a very good day. Hopefully it sticks though.

You really need to watch this More than 20 Million Americans Are Represented by the Democratic Senate Minority than the Publica

This is really for W

I hope he can watch a facebook post, video even if he doesn't have Facebook

Looks like Politifact doesn't like the truth either

BTW the rest of my truncated post title would say:
You really need to watch this More than 20 Million Americans Are Represented by the Democratic Senate Minority than the Publican Senate Majority

Drupal upgrde is not straight forward

So, you probably won't have this site for long. I'm going to update first.

Iceland and Guam

The difference would be even bigger on the first day of spring but

Tomorrow will have 45 seconds more of sunlight in Guam and 6 minutes and 31 seconds in Iceland.

It is about the biggest difference you get between the two places. It was bigger a couple of days ago but I don't have that data available.

Estate taxes

If I kill myself right now, the IRS would be very happy. I would pay a huge estate tax bill because resident aliens have no exemption and anything over $145,000 would be subject to estate tax.

Or maybe I should change my will.

How is that for being cryptic?

Does anyone get notice when I change my posts?

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