whecht's blog

Happy birthday

We love you GUAM

Happy birthday

Happy birthday to Erin ??? Hecht

Happy Birthday

We all love you April

Imagine turning 22 on your birthday

Goodbye and good luck

We all love you

We all wish you well

We all hope to see you sometime both here and there

I heard a great joke

I am currently drinking a cherry coke and someone told me a joke

I guy walks into Hy and Harry's and asks for a chocolate Seven Up

And the guy gives him a Cherry Cola!

I haven't laughed this hard in years

The founder's birthday

Happy birthday Peter.

I never realized your birthday was so close to the founder of North Korea.

Happy anniversary

To Lisa and Brian

Happy anniversary

To Lisa and Brian

Today IS the ONE HUNDREDTH anniversary

I know I am the only one who cares

But we did severe relations with Germany 100 years ago

Happy birthday

We all hope you have a wonderful birthday

crock of shit

Clinton lost a very close race
She spent too much time in OH AZ FA and IA
She got hurt by Comey

All this soul searching is absurd

The media hated Clinton and treated her unfairly

all the stupid commentary is nuttin futz

Electoral College

It seems that about 20% of the time that 538 says Trump wins is when he had fewer popular votes.

It is wrong to say that someone lost the popular vote because there isn't a contest for the popular vote.

If that happens then everyone will be more upset but it won't change anything

Tropical storm Lisa

Andrew has been retired
I don't know about April (probably month names like May and June are not eligible)
Neil is not on the list so we need to retire an N name for Neil to have a chance
Bill is retired, I think
Peter is so far down the list that it rarely comes up

I wonder how Lisa will do
The next chance is 2022

Fuck You Osama

I can see the lights reaching up to heaven from where I am sitting

It is the closest some of us will ever get to heaven

April

Happy birthday
We all love you

I know I'm a few hours early

John Mclaughlin died today

The Mcglochlin group was such a great show 30 years ago

I would have missed him if he died then

He became a windbag and gave Pat Buchanan a place to speak

Pat might not be a Nazi but he defended every Nazi he could

Billy

Happy birthday

You caused your mom a ton of pain for about 15 minutes

Call her and tell her you love her

I think you are great person

Thanks for being you

AAOHM

Alice would be 87 today

We love you and we miss you

nterestng

Do math majors in college graduate with a degree or with a radian?

My kid asked for a Pb and Jam sandwich in his lunch tomorrow. How much lead is appropriate for a 10 year old boy to consume?

If I flip a coin 1,000,000 times, what are the odds of me wasting my time?

Is Black Lives Matter similar to dark matter?

If parallel universes exist, is there a parallel universe in which parallel universes don't exist? (One for the philosophers out there...)

How did humans evolve to fit so perfectly into clothing?

If particles do not exist unless observed, why can't I close my eyes and walk through walls?

How many milligrams are in a telegram?

The Solar System has five Dwarf planets, but why doesn't it have any Elf or Orc planets?

Why can't I weigh the earth by putting a scale upside-down? (Actually, you can! Sort of.)

senate odds

AM

how about a bet on who controls the Senate in January?
I will be on the Democrats and you can bet on the Trumps.

How about over under for the House?
I say the Republicans will have 239 or less and you take 240 or more

Election odds

Based on current data from Electionbettingodds

Clinton has a 77% chance of winning if she is the nominee and Sanders has a 61.9% chance.

Trump has a 22.4% chance and Cruz has a 19.5% chance and Kasich has a 26.7% chance.

So, I am still waiting for AM to post what bets he would make so we can trace how well he would really do.

I think that Clinton will win. At these odds, I would put a little money on Clinton but I think the odds are close to accurate. Of course, the reason the market is close to accurate is that people will put money on a bet that is too good to be true and bring it back in line.

Trump and winning

I have been arguing that it doesn’t matter who gets the most popular votes just as it doesn’t matter which team scores the most runs. What counts is who got the most electoral votes and which team won the most games.

Now, it appears that a number of Republicans seem to disagree with me. Trump and others appear to be coming to the conclusion that whoever gets the most votes should win. Hillary would love that standard because Sanders can’t gain the lead in popular votes but will be far closer in delegates.

The key factor here, just as it was in 2000, is that playing by the rules isn’t what is important. Winning is what’s important. Trump wants to win so he wants the rules to be changed to make it easier for him to win. Cruz wants to win so he wants the rules to just be changed a little so that nobody but the top two contenders are allowed to win. Kasich is doing his thing too.

Ted Cruz will be the 46th President of the United States

Unless President Clinton dies in office.

Why Ted Cruz needs to lose the nomination
I submit that if Cruz wins the nomination then he will NEVER become president. If Cruz loses the nomination then Cruz will be the odds on favorite to win the 2020 election.

If Cruz loses the nomination then it will either be to Trump or to a white knight. If Trump wins then the odds are great that Clinton wins an election and the Democrats get control of the Senate and might even get the House. If a white knight wins then Trump supporters will be ticked and the white knight will probably lose the White House and the Senate.

If Cruz wins then the Trump people are just as ticked and Clinton wins pretty easily. Interestingly, if Trump runs as a third party then the Republicans might do well in the Senate because when Trump gets 10% of the people to vote for him who wouldn’t vote otherwise then the Senate might actually stay Republican. But, you need to remember that Trump isn’t rich enough to fund his own campaign. Can Trump run by spending $50 million while Cruz and Clinton each spend 20 times as much or $1 billion each?

I doubt I will ever vote again.

I suppose I will try to vote again if I move. This place was very inconvenient for transit and took almost 20 minutes of walking, most of which was under a major highway next to a major road with a ton of noise and trucks.

It wasn't in a very safe section of town.

In any event, Clinton has a very slight chance of getting an extra delegate because of me.

I hope you are all happy that I wasted my time.

The reason I voted is that I really do feel the Bern. I could never support Bernie for anything anymore. He is too ignorant. He is too far left. He hasn't accomplished much in his long career.

729 votes to elect a single delegate

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/04/15/upshot/republican-voting-p...

According to the rules of delegate selection, there is a congressional district where 729 votes would elect a single delegate to the RNC.

So, what are the odds that the delegate vote in that district will be that close? If I am a Trump supporter then what are the odds that Trump will get an extra delegate because I voted? He would have to be one vote short of getting either 1 or 2 or 3 delegates in that district. Of course, if I were a Cruz supporter then the math would be slightly different.

Of course, you then have to decide whether or not the change in a single delegate makes any difference in Cleveland.

My vote tomorrow will be almost surely a waste of time. The delegate math doesn't matter. If Sanders wins by a single vote then Hillary is dead. I wonder how close Sanders needs to be to kill Hillary. I wonder how you could get a white night like Biden or Kerry to defeat Sanders. I don't see it happening.

Syndicate content