To have a place on the web for the family.

Estate taxes

If I kill myself right now, the IRS would be very happy. I would pay a huge estate tax bill because resident aliens have no exemption and anything over $145,000 would be subject to estate tax.

Or maybe I should change my will.

How is that for being cryptic?

Does anyone get notice when I change my posts?

71% right now

Predictwise says that 40 of the 51 states are at least 9-1 in favor of one party or the other.

There are 11 tossup states meaning the odds are less than 9-1
Democrats get 207 votes
Republicans get 181
140 are toss up
Minnesota 88%
New Hampshire 85%
Colorado 83%
Wisconsin 78%
Iowa 74%
Pennsylvania 67%
Virginia 67%
Nevada 59%
Ohio 51%
Florida 41%
North Carolina 21%

This makes Virginia and Pennsylvania the toss up states. The Democrats need both of them to win the election.

If the democrats get all the states where they have a 67% or better chance of winning then they win. If the Republicans get all of the states where they have at least a 34% chance of winning and either VA or PA then the republicans win.

Overall, as of yesterday, the democrats were a 71% favorite.

Sorry I am so darn cryptic

The space between Clinton and Kasich

If everyone who isn't a Democrat thinks that Clinton is pretty far on the left and everyone who isn't a Republican thinks that Kasich is far to the right then why isn't there a huge group in between?

I don't see anyone in the Republican Party who thinks that Kasich would have to, or should, pivot toward the center. I think most everyone reading this thinks that Clinton is already too far to the right.

So you have about 40% of the people to the right of Kasich and 40% of the people to the left of Clinton meaning the middle 20% is pretty small. If you had a bell curve then you would have relatively few people on the extremes and most of the people in the center.

I talk with a bunch of people who hate Clinton and I defend my position as having to choose between the two "moderates". Since Kasich is so far to the right then I think Clinton is closer to the middle.

Anyway, I find it amazing that the two parties just force each of their candidates to move farther from the middle.

Illogical, aint it?

What they are saying (Republicans) "They want to destroy the world"

I'm a republican for the reason HR was. You need to moderate the crazies. What are you if you don't try? A Democrat.

If there was any reason to vote for the democrat in one sentence is from Noam at the minute mark I set (3:21).

I'm voting for the Clinton. If she could be four times as good as Bill was at President, she will be half as good as President Obama.

Bad communicators

Chayet & Danzo have been released as my lawyer as they requested. They never provided a reason. They keep thinking I owe over $1,700.00 USD. I have sent them a list of their invoices to me. They don't respond. I would NEVER recommend them.

I would not have thought Trump and Clinton would be the nominees.

I would not have thought Trump and Clinton would be the nominees.


The reason that Deep Mind winning is so impressive is that Google managed to accomplish this with virtually no warning. It was less than a decade ago where I could beat the best computer in the world in go. It was less than a year ago where a computer program was not in the top 20,000 in the world. It was less than 6 months ago when the program beat a player in the top 1,000. Yesterday the program beat the best player in the world.

Am I wrong to be shocked at how fast complicate AI has advanced?

The best way to attack Donald Trump

If I were Cruz or Rubio, I would attack Trump this way.

Donald Trump will never release his tax returns because they show he has been lying about how successful he has been. His tax returns probably show that he has very little taxable income. The returns will show that he aggressively wrote off all of his failed business ventures and might even show a number of years where Trump lost money.

Trump lies to people about everything. Many people give him credit for being a successful businessman and being worth billions. I have to give Trump credit. He is a master showman and has years of practice in reality TV but in the real world, Donald Trump is a mediocre businessman and lies about how rich and successful he is.

Mike Bloomberg is rich enough to run as a third party candidate. Donald Trump is not rich enough to run for President without raising funds like the rest of us. This is just another lie Trump is pedaling.

Income distribution

Person #1 is in the 7th percentile for people of that sex, age group, race and education.
Person # 2 is in the 24th percentile for people of that sex, age group, race and education.

The funny thing is that some people are not happy with the way income is divided in this country.


George Will doesn't like Trump. He is "too late."


I talked to a reasonable conservative whose biggest fear of a Democrat wining is that we are just one vote away on the Court from losing the 2nd amendment. Cities with crazy liberal government will be able to take away the right to own a gun. After a couple of minutes, it became clear that there was no point in talking about common sense.

It was sort of like talking to a Sanders supporter who blames Clinton for the repeal of Glass Steagall and that repeal being the cause of the 2008 financial crisis. If you want to blame Clinton for anything then it was allowing hedging and futures to have lax regulation, but I digress.

There are not enough Morons to elect Trump

I think I agree with Chris Lowe of the Pet Shop Boys rather than a baseball statistician

Stupidity combined with arrogance and a huge ego will get you a long way. Chris Lowe
Read more at:

Reality has a liberal bias

One reason this is true is that the Democrats actually try to stay close the ball park of reality.

It is absurd that the Republicans all claim they can get the economy growing faster than it has since the depression. It is absurd to think that the tax cuts will all pay for themselves.

It is absurd that Bernie can think that a little tax on the rich and fixing healthcare gets everyone gets government services without paying for them.

So, can you please find me an article written by someone who supports the Republican side that shows that the tax proposals are absurd?

Here is one showing that Bernie's plan is absurd.

I can show you a bunch of others too.

As you know, I want single payer health insurance. Because if I need to get medical care on my own I can game the system.

Good Quote

Café Hayek is just what it sounds like, a far right economic site. However, it sometimes helps to read what people who disagree with you are saying

"For reasons I don’t understand, people simply love to be told that the sky is falling. Yet it seldom does."

Thanks for your donation Neil! XO

Means a lot to me :)

Mick Taylor

Then it hits you, you never knew what Mick Taylor looked liked.


I read someplace that Scalia liked to push the envelope. If the vote was 6-3 then he hadn’t pushed hard enough. If this is true then I think it is sufficient evidence to PROVE that Scalia politicized the Court.

“Comments like that lessened his influence. But Scalia happily observed that he looked to push the envelope, that if he had a 6-to-3 majority, he hadn’t pushed it hard enough.”

This isn’t where I first read it but it was the first place I found when I searched for it.

If the law says that one side in the Court case is correct then shouldn’t the vote be 9-0? It is the complicated cased that make it to the Supreme Court to begin with and it is the extra complicated cases that are decided by a 5-4 decision. It would be really easy to imagine a slightly different set of Justices or a slightly different set of facts that would result in a 5-4 decision going the other way.

It's Not Nobody Wins

In Team Fortress 2 when a match ends without one side winning, it isn't nobody won. It is everybody lost.

That is where the family is right now with every get together.

Either Neil shows up with Yuko and Lisa and Mom can't be there, or they don't and Granddad is hurt because of it. And I can understand both points of view and why the two sides won't change.

And I am tired of it.

These situations don't end with nobody wins. They end with everybody losing.


Let me tell you Mr. Trump you are a bully and if I wasn't a Republican already, I would change parties to the GOP to vote and caucus against you.

Your crowd cheers "U.S.A" and "Trump", until they disagree with you.

Obama in Baltimore

"We can't be bystanders to bigotry," Obama said.

Waiting till the end of March 2016,2817,2498766,00.asp

"Rumor: Apple to Unveil iPhone 5se, iPad Air 3 on March 15"

"As for what to expect, 9to5Mac's unnamed sources reckon the Cupertino tech giant will unveil the rumored 4-inch iPhone 5se, along with the iPad Air 3, and new Apple watch band options."

I think the prices of the current hardware will drop. Maybe a new Mac Mini too?


I don't know much at all about the email mess. It might kill her or it might not.

She is about a 2-1 favorite in Iowa. It seems to me that she might be in big trouble if she doesn't win there.

I think Iowa will be a big win for Hillary and Cruz. I am basing this on the fact that voter registration has not gone up significantly in those states. Yes, you can register the night of the caucus but it seems that they candidates should try and get their voters registered before then.

I still wouldn't be surprised if Hillary and Cruz sweep every state.

S3 is smaller than the iPhone 6 Plus, but about the same size of the iPhone 6

Samsung S3: 136.6 x 70.6 x 8.6 mm, 133g
iPhone 6: 5.44 inches (138.1 mm) x 2.64 inches (67.0 mm) x 0.27 inch (6.9 mm), 4.55 ounces (129 grams)
iPhone 6S Plus: 6.23 inches (158.2 mm) x 3.07 inches (77.9 mm) x 0.29 inch (7.3 mm), 6.77 ounces (192 grams)

So, I'm not going to get the Plus. I don't have big pockets. Unless I'm wearing Denver Causal (Cargo pants and a Polo/Golf shirt)!

And thanks for reading!

Rick Santorum


Google has created the strongest go program ever.

It beat a professional 5-0. Never has a program come close to beating a professional.

The program is now scheduled to play the best player in the world this March with the winner getting $1 million.

Just last year, it appeared that that best programs in the world were ranked about 15 stones higher than me. I know a couple of people who are 15 stones better me. Professionals are easily 5 stones better that last year's computer programs. Generally, programs get better by about a stone a year and have been slowing down recently.

For a program to make a leap like this is amazing. They have figured out a new way to think.

If I read the paper correctly then the best program in the world last year had an ELO rating of 1919 and the new program has a rating of 2890 using the same hardware. Basically 400 points means you should win 95% of the time. With different hardware and a different way of using the hardware the program has a rating of 3140. My rating on this scale is about 500.

The singularity is nearer than we thought.

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